Decision 2008: The Lowdown

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Category: Random stuff

Happy Independence Day

As you're hovering over the barbecue this afternoon or gazing at the fireworks tonight, a little something to keep in mind, courtesy of Thomas Jefferson:

"My God! How little do my countrymen know what precious blessings they are in possession of, and which no other people on earth enjoy!"

Happy Fourth of July. More politics on Monday.

Category: Morning line

The morning line: July 3 edition

Today, it's all about the money.

Specifically, money the Republican National Committee is spending on an ad blitz in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin beginning this weekend. A Democratic source told The News late last night that party officials believe the GOP will spend $870,000 in Michigan on the ads, including $510,000 in the Detroit market.

The ads will be crafted by an independent-expenditure arm of the RNC headed by consultant Brad Todd, who ABC News points out worked for Dick DeVos's unsuccessful 2006 run for governor.

The RNC money could bring Sen. John McCain closer to financial parity with Sen. Barack Obama. Spinmeister Karl Rove's latest Wall Street Journal column is headlined, "Can Barack buy the presidency?" Odd in a way, because much of the piece is dedicated to how the RNC can even up McCain's financial disadvantage. Elsewhere, a WSJ piece (subscription required) outlines how other groups are coming to McCain's aid, including one designed to help GOP governors.

All the while, reports the New York Times, Obama is beefing up his own fundraising with more high-dollar events for donors.

It remains to be seen how all this raising and spending will affect the election. But one thing does seem sure: This holiday weekend, TV in Michigan will be a preview of saturation advertising likely to come in the fall. Here's what else is going on in politics:

SHAKEUP II: For the second time in a year, McCain is reorganizing his campaign. Now ascendandt: Steve Schmidt, a blunt operative with a penchant for campaign discipline. The immediate effect in places such as Michigan is a waning of McCain's controversial plan to put regional campaign managers in direct control of what goes on in their states.

THERE FOR THE RESCUE: McCain picked a good day to be in Colombia.

CONTRA ROMNEY: Chris Cillizza lays out the case against Mitt Romney for veep, including job cuts ordered by Romney's venture capital firm.

SERVICE WANTED: Obama calls for expanding opportunities for Americans to serve, including doubling the size of the Peace Corps.

CHICAGO TO DC: Blooomberg explores how Obama's days as a community organizer have influenced his campaign.

CITY HALL WATCH: Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick's father is among those under scrutiny in an ongoing City Hall corruption investigation.

Category: The ad war

RNC buying ads in Michigan

Politico's Ben Smith had first word of a TV advertising buy by the Republican National Committee in four states, including Michigan.

A quick check with one broadcasting source says the ads were placed this morning, in fairly significant dollars, and that the spot may be a 60-second ad. More to come.

UPDATE: One correction; the add is a traditional 30-second spot. And expect to see a lot of it in the week after the holiday weekend, at least in Metro Detroit, according to a quick look at some of the ad-buy documents on file with local TV stations.

Category: Following up

Gitmo tactics came from Chinese abuse

Last month, we reported on an investigation led by Sen. Carl Levin that found top Pentagon officials were more involved than previously was known in pushing for harsh interrogation tactics at the U.S. prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

This morning, The New York Times has a fascinating follow-up to that story. Among the documents used to explain those tactics to Guantanamo interrogators was a chart "copied verbatim from a 1957 Air Force study of Chinese Communist techniques used during the Korean War to obtain confessions, many of them false, from American prisoners."

So, tactics used by American interrogators were drawn, at least in part, from a vilified enemy's abusive tactics against U.S. personnel.

The document was included in a massive package released by Levin's Senate Armed Services Committee last month. But it wasn't clear where the chart came from until this morning's Times report. Levin, as you might expect, told The Times he was appalled to learn of the Communist Chinese origins of the Guantanamo abuses. "What makes this document doubly stunning is that these were techniques to get false confessions," he told the Times. "People say we need intelligence, and we do. But we don't need false intelligence."

Category: Morning line

The morning line: July 2 edition

The Lansing bureau's Mark Hornbeck has a must-read piece this morning on that mysterious petition drive seeking to make major changes to the structure of Michigan government.

Mark clears up some of the mystery: Indications are the plan, which would shrink the state Supreme Court and Legislature and toughen state ethics requirements, is primarily aimed at changing the redistricting process, which draws the lines for congressional and legislative districts.

Redistricting is one of the most powerful forces in politics, and one of the least understood by the public. It helps explain why Michigan, a state that has been reliably blue in presidential and Senate races for almost two decades, has nine Republicans in the U.S. House and six Democrats. Exhibit A is Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Brighton. In 2000, Rogers won one of the closest congressional races in the country, defeating Dianne Byrum by about 120 votes. But redistricting after the 2000 census, controlled by the Republican-led Legislature, added reliably GOP areas and excised some Democratic ones, making it safely Republican -- he won re-election in 2006 by more than 100,000 votes. (It should be pointed out that Rogers' own political skills, as well as the district lines, play a role.)

Voters, much to the frustration of some reformers, have never shown much outrage at the redistricting game. The backers of this petition drive -- unknown for now, thanks to lax Michigan financial disclosure laws -- appear to believe that bolting measures such as pay cuts for lawmakers is necessary to get the proposal through. It will be interesting to see if Republicans can succeed in creating a backlash by portraying the drive as secretive and under-handed.

What else is happening in politics?

MCCAIN IN COLOMBIA: Sen. John McCain begins his free-trade tour in Colombia with a plea for improve human rights there. That plea is unlikely to satisfy opponents of a Colombia trade deal, who point to murders and assaults on union organizers in Colombia. As the Los Angeles Times points out, the deal would likely benefit the U.S. overall, because most Colombian goods already enter this country duty-free, while most U.S. exports to Colombia are taxed. But voters may not buy that: As the Washington Post reports, "the electoral risks are significant in a country that by better than a 2 to 1 margin thinks global trade has been bad for the U.S. economy."

FAITH-BASED: Sen. Barack Obama, in another move seen as a general-election shift to the center, talks enthusiastically of partnering the federal government and religious groups for social-service programs.

CENTRISM: Democratic strategist Ed Kilgore likes these moves to the middle.

VEEPSTAKES: The Post's Chris Cillizza makes the case for Mitt Romney as McCain's running mate, including a prediction that Romney would make McCain "a slight favorite" in Michigan, something there's little evidence for so far in polling data. Cillizza's case against Romney comes tomorrow.

SWEET DEAL? Obama apparently got a better than average deal for the mortgage on his Chicago home, though there is no evidence of shady dealings.

GAY MARRIAGE BAN: McCain and Obama both are treading softly while taking opposite sides on a proposed gay marriage ban in California.

WORRYING ABOUT MCCAIN: McCain campaign isn't efficient enough or generous enough for some Republicans' tastes.

CITY HALL WATCH: Colorful Detroit political consultant provides some, um, colorful commentary to The News' Charlie LeDuff on the contracting scandal now ripping through City Hall.

Category: Michigan campaign

White House: Auto business tough

White House spokesman Tony Fratto got a question about today's bad auto sales numbers during a press briefing aboard Air Force One. His response:

"It's a tough time for automakers. I think the changes in -- the slowdown in the overall economy -- we're now in a period of slower growth, and that was going to have an -- that was always going to have an impact on that important sector -- combining that with the very high gasoline prices that we've seen in recent years and, most recently in recent weeks, are causing customers to change the kinds of vehicles that they want to buy. And that means that the automakers are going through a real transition. They're changing their vehicle fleets to try to respond to the tastes of customers out there. And so there's no question it's a tough time, not just for U.S. automakers, but even for foreign automakers making cars in the United States are experiencing some of the same challenges."

Category: Knollenberg-Peters race

Peters gets help from Democratic group

21st Century Democrats, a liberal political action committee, endorsed Gary Peters on Tuesday in his campaign against Rep. Joe Knollenberg, R-Bloomfield Township. Peters was one of nine Democrats the group endorsed in congressional and state legislative races.

The group has spent about $2.7 million so far in the 2008 election cycle backing candidates from Senate and governor races to local offices, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. It is backing one other Michigan candidate: State Rep. Andy Meisner, running for Oakland County treasurer; it also backed Meissner's 2006's 2006 state House race.

Category: The economic campaign

McCain web video pushes trade pacts

The McCain campaign is out this morning with a new Web ad (that is, a video that won't hit the airwaves) making McCain's case for free trade deals:

The release comes as McCain travels to Colombia today to encourage U.S. approval of a trade treaty with the South American country. Democrats have criticized the proposed deal, in part because labor unionists in Colombia have been targeted for killings and other violence; check out this PBS interview with Rep. Sander Levin for some of the debate.

Category: Morning line

The morning line: July 1 edition

Yesterday, it was patriotism and military service driving the presidential debate. Today's focus shifts to evangelicals and the benefits of free trade.

Sen. Barack Obama's speech on patriotism probably will not, the coverage agrees, completely end the whispered doubts and smears about Obama's love of country. It did, however, give him a well-timed opportunity to respond to retired Gen. Wesley Clark's criticism of Sen. John McCain's national security experience. "No one should ever devalue that service," Obama declared -- though that, too, is unlikely to stop the conversation about McCain's military credentials.

McCain, meanwhile, travels to Colombia today, the start of a Latin American trip to promote trade agreements with southern neighbors. Despite the potential trouble it could cause him in swing states such as Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, McCain clearly intends to push his advocacy for trade deals throughout the campaign. Obama is in Ohio, where he'll deliver a speech on faith and propose an expansion of President Bush's program encouraging federal funding for faith-based organizations.

What else is happening on a relatively slow holiday week in the campaign?

ENERGY SWITCHES: The Los Angeles Times looks at McCain's record on energy -- a weeklong focus of his campaign last week -- and finds a series of policy switches and contradictions.

NOT SO BAD AFTER ALL: The Boston Globe's Peter Canellos casts a critical eye on the notion that raging sexism and racism have marked the campaign so far.

SENATE OUTLOOK: Fivethirtyeight.com kicks off Senate race predictions and analysis, including Michigan, where Sen. Carl Levin rates as a safe Democratic win.

LANSING WATCH: State lawmakers didn't quite wrap up the state budget before heading off on vacation -- but they're still well ahead of last year's distressing pace.

CITY HALL WATCH: Christine MacDonald and Paul Egan write about the continuinwag fallout from an FBI investigation of a city waste disposal contract.

Category: Veepstakes

Romney atop McCain's veep list?

Politico's Mike Allen has the latest look at the veepstakes, suggesting that Mitt Romney is getting all the buzz in GOP circles in speculation on Sen. John McCain's running mate.

Allen names three A-list candidates for McCain, plus a second tier. At the top: Romney; former Ohio congressman Robert Portman; and Sen. John Thune of South Dakota. Romney brings campaign experience and the ability to raise mounds of money. But the two have apparently not clicked personally, despite Romney's enthusiastic work on McCain's behalf since the primary campaign ended. Thune, a favorite of conservatives, would be a compromise for the party's right wing, Allen writes, if McCain just can't manage to pick Romney.